Most people that see an NFL Draft prospect visit and make a logical assumption, “My team is interested in drafting Player X”. For the rest of the workforce world, when you have an in person interview that typically means you’re in consideration to land the job. This isn’t the case when it comes to the NFL, so let’s take a deeper dive into this concept.
*I apologize in advance, but my prospect visit examples will be Miami Dolphins players. If you read the blog or listen to the podcast you will know they are simply the team I am the most comfortable with. Again, I apologize if this bother you in some way.
The Visit with Drafting Interest
This is the situation that most fans think is occurring when they see a prospect visiting their team. Quite honestly most prospect visits prior to the draft do have some sort of interest tied to them. When you only have 30 total prospect visits before the draft you have none to put to waste. If you are considering investing a first round pick into a player you're going to want to get as up close and personal as you can. You don’t always get that opportunity at a Pro Day, the Combine, or an All-Star game.
Our first case study is DeVante Parker who the Dolphins selected 14th overall in the 2015 class. Last off season Bryan Fischer of NFL.com reported the DeVante Parker visit with Miami. In this case the Dolphins has true interest in drafting Parker, so the brought him in and put him through their process. This example is a cut and dry as it gets, and from general knowledge is how the process of prospect visits usually works.
Now let’s dive into some of the more tactical visit types.
The Visit with No Interest/Informational
Our second prospect visit situation is the classic “smokescreen”.Teams will spend a visit with a hot prospect that they may not actually want to draft in order to get a team ahead of them to pull the trigger early, or to get a team below them to panic and trade above them for the prospect.
The other side of this is a visit that a team hosts in order to gain information on a prospect so if a team in their division drafts them, or they become a free agent, the team hosting the visit has scouted the player already.
A great example of inviting a prospect that you don’t want is when the Jaguars really sold Johnny Manziel’s visit. Everyone was saying how fantastic the visit was, but the Jaguars were just adding hype to the Manziel train so they could ensure they could get Blake Bortles at the 3rd pick overall.
“Last year the Jaguars appeared poised to draft any player not named Blake Bortles with the third overall pick. It was leaked, in every manner imaginable, that their interest was not in taking a quarterback, and if they were to grab one, it would be Johnny Manziel out of Texas A&M and not the UCF standout.
Jaguars management stressed to the Bortles camp that he wouldn’t be the guy. The team hosted both Bortles and Manziel for visits, and in the interest of spreading that belief, during an early offseason practice before the draft, an offensive coach finished his meeting with the words: “Don't worry about this stuff. We'll put it in when Johnny gets here.” The ruse was bolstered many times over.” (Robert Kelmko, MMQB.si.com)
As for an example when it comes to an informational visit, this offseason the Dolphins will be bringing in Connor Cook from Michigan State. After resigning Matt Moore and working so hard to keep Logan Thomas the Dolphins are probably not going to spend a pick on a quarterback in the first two days of the draft. They could, but the logical signs would say differently (my luck they’ll draft him early and you’ll laugh at me). On the other hand the New York Jets are looking for another quarterback and Cook might end up there. This visit has more external long-term implication than just the 2016 draft.
NO Visit with Major Intent to Draft
One of the best ways to ensure you get the prospect you really want is to not invite him to your facility and have absolutely no meetings with him. It’s similar to the thought process of a twelve year old girl whose technique to telling someone she has feelings for them is to ignore them. Lesson learned: NFL executives and twelve year old girls are the same thing.
The Dolphins did this when they selected Dion Jordan in 2013. The Dolphins had zero contact with Jordan, but then they traded up to the 3rd pick overall to take him. Joke’s on them though because they didn’t do enough background checking on Jordan before taking him.
So What’s the Lesson?
Don’t worry about what prospects are visiting your team. Enjoy the NFL Draft process, but don’t get hung up on any moves that are made.
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